Development of Simulation Framework for Impact Analysis of Launch Delays on Lunar Base Station

Abstract

Humans have not ventured beyond Earth since the days of the Apollo missions. NASA astronauts were the first and last to set foot on the lunar surface, and it is again thanks to NASA that the initiative to go back to the Moon is moving forward. The Artemis missions will land men and women on the lunar surface with the purpose of establishing a long-term presence on the Moon. The current Artemis Plan includes the Artemis Base Camp, a lunar base stationed on the lunar South Pole. The maintenance of the base will require frequent missions to be performed in order to keep its supplies stocked and to rotate the crew aboard. Planning these missions around the multiple components needed to be launched, the limited launch windows for transfers to lunar orbit, and the risk of delays, is a task well-suited for a discrete event simulation model. The delay of a launch by even a small number of days can push it outside of the window of opportunity for rendezvous with the lunar Gateway. Therefore, this study aims at developing a systems modeling framework to simulate the impact that launch delays can have on the successful support of a base station, and its crew, on the surface of the Moon. The framework includes the consumption and resupply of multiple types of resources and astronauts with different mission lengths inhabiting the base, as well as a chance of emergency missions being requested. In addition, optimization software was used to compare optimal parameters in case delays were considered and in case they were not. The results derived from this model will be useful for the long-term planning of support missions to the lunar base.