Deployment of an Inexpensive, Reliable, and Low Carbon Electric Power System Requires New Modeling Tools.

Abstract

The electricity system is of fundamental importance to the decarbonization of the entire energy system, as fuel switching away from oil and natural gas and towards electricity is a key decarbonization statregy. The scenarios presented here incorporate hourly electricity demand profiles resulting from the electrification of heating and vehicles, as well as from substantial energy efficiency. Even with agressive efficiency measures, WECC-wide electricity demand is likely to increase by at least 75% between present-day and 2050 due to population growth and additional demand from electric vehicles and electric heating. The results presented here should be interpreted in the context of the economic optimization from which they are generated. They do not represent prescriptions or projections but rather they depict minimum-cost strategies for a range of possible scenarios that depict minimum-cost strategies for a range of possible scenarios