Holistic Methodology for Stochastic Space Mission Utility Analysis
Watson, Ja'Mar Alexander
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Analysis and design mechanisms have a profound effect on space missions; yet, space mission engineering is a discipline without unanimous definition and implementation. Current philosophies are inadequate due to incomplete mission phasespaces, disaggregated design methods, exclusion of constitutive relations, curtailed tradespace exploration, and unsubstantiated mission concept solutions. This dissertation presents a new paradigm for simultaneously developing, exploring, and assessing statistically validated space mission concepts. Stochastic modeling and simulation, providing multivariate mission utility analysis with concurrently integrated tradespace exploration, risk assessment, and holistic design, facilitates the methodology. Backtesting of the Apollo II-17 crewed missions to the Moon and retrodiction of Martian robotic missions provide verification and validation. Exemplification of the prospective human spaceflight mission to Mars quantifies the efficacy of the methodology with results indicative of an 84% increase in mission utility and a 40% reduction in risk.